This Pi coin reddit priceWednesday, the US will release the CPI data for June. Market expectations indicate that the June CPI will decrease from the previous month's 4% to 3.1%, while the core CPI will fall from 5.3% to 5%. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it will reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates twice, and the S&P 500 index is expected to rise.

On July 12th, the US will release the CPI data for June. The market consensus is that the June CPI will drop from 4% in the previous month to 3.1%, while the core CPI will decrease from 5.3% to 5%.

【Source：MacroMicro】

A series of price-related indicators have also been indicating a moderation in inflation. On July 10th, Cox Automotive announced that used car prices in the US declined by 4.2% month-on-month in June, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, a consumer expectation survey for June showed a decline in the one-year inflation rate expectation from 4.1% to 3.8%, marking the third consecutive monthly decrease and reaching the lowest level since April 2021.

Automobile prices are an important component of CPI inflation, and consumer expectations play a crucial role in driving inflation. The decreases in both these factors are favorable for cooling off inflation.

The June CPI is a significant report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at the end of this month, which will guide the Fed's next rate hike action.

Currently, the market expects a probability of 92.4% for a rate hike by the Fed in July. The lower-than-expected CPI results may not be sufficient to change the decision of a 25 basis points rate hike in July, but it will help reduce expectations of further rate hikes by the Fed after July.

【Source：CME】

The decrease in expectations of two rate hikes would be beneficial for the S&P 500 index. JPMorgan predicts that if the CPI grows year-on-year between 3.05% and 3.2%, the S&P 500 index will rise by 1.5% to 1.75%. If the CPI grows year-on-year between 3.05% and 3.2%, the S&P 500 index will rise by 0.5% to 0.75%. Conversely, if the CPI grows year-on-year between 3.3% and 3.6%, the S&P 500 index will fall by 1% to 1.25%.

We believe that the CPI data this time will meet expectations, and the S&P 500 index is expected to modestly rise by 0-1%.

Currently, the S&P 500 index is consolidating above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the bulls still have some strength. In the short term, the resistance level is at 4482, while the support level is at 4430.

【Source：TradingView】